Katrina

I know that I’m not even remotely meteorological, but if you’re not familiar with the worst case scenario for a hurricane landfall in New Orleans, read this

Georges, a Category 2 storm that only grazed New Orleans, had pushed waves to within a foot of the top of the levees. A stronger storm on a slightly different course — such as the path Georges was on just 16 hours before landfall — could have realized emergency officials’ worst-case scenario: hundreds of billions of gallons of lake water pouring over the levees into an area averaging 5 feet below sea level with no natural means of drainage.

That would turn the city and the east bank of Jefferson Parish into a lake as much as 30 feet deep, fouled with chemicals and waste from ruined septic systems, businesses and homes. Such a flood could trap hundreds of thousands of people in buildings and in vehicles. At the same time, high winds and tornadoes would tear at everything left standing. Between 25,000 and 100,000 people would die, said John Clizbe, national vice president for disaster services with the American Red Cross.

Some other info from the article: in a worst case scenario NOLA could be completely uninhabitable for as much as six months. Those who managed to survive and find high ground would be competing with all manners of animals for that space… snakes, alligators, vermin, etc. This scenario is the worst one that the folks at FEMA can even imagine.

And as of some time last night, I think, Katrina is a Cat V. The Weather Channel is putting windspeed as high as 175MPH. This is nothing to joke around with. As things sit right now, I’m hearing numbers of between a 10 and 20% likelihood of this “filling the bowl” thing happening. As much as ONE IN FIVE. In short… if you’re in the Big Easy, it’s probably time to get the hell out of dodge. Seriously.

Note: In other news, I was glad to read that Bobby headed for higher ground… damn good idea.

UPDATE: TWC’s Jim Cantore says… “If you’re not scared, you should be.”