Mark Steyn, writing in the Telegraph, tells us:
“When people see a strong horse and a weak horse, naturally they will like the strong horse.” So said Osama bin Laden in his final video appearance two-and-a-half years ago. But even the late Osama might have been surprised to see the Spanish people, invited to choose between a strong horse and a weak horse, opt to make their general election an exercise in mass self-gelding.
To be sure, there are all kinds of John Kerry-esque footnoted nuances to Sunday’s stark numbers. One sympathises with those electors reported to be angry at the government’s pathetic insistence, in the face of the emerging evidence, that Thursday’s attack was the work of Eta, when it was obviously the jihad boys. One’s sympathy, however, disappears with their decision to vote for a party committed to disengaging from the war against the jihadi. As Margaret Thatcher would have said: “This is no time to go wobbly, Manuel.” But they did. And no one will remember the footnotes, the qualifications, the background – just the final score: terrorists toppled a European government.
A bit long, but absolutely, positively spot-fucking-on.
Prior to the spain terror attacks polls showed that upwards of 90% of Spain’s citizens were opposed to their country’s involvement in the war in Iraq. That is why they voted Aznar out of office… they intended to before the attacks happenned, and they did so after the attacks happenned. What they did, in fact, was to NOT let the terrorist attacks affect their judjement one bit. Here’s Colin Powell’s view on the subject
Powell added that he wasn’t sure if the Madrid bombings affected the outcome of Sunday’s elections: “But the one thing I’m quite sure of is that Spanish people remain committed in the war against terrorists.”
source: http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/.....index.html
I’d say he hit it dead on. They voted for ther person they wanted in office, they din’t let the attacks sway them, and they will remain our allies in the war on terror. They simply don’t want to remain involved in Iraq. They have the luxury of being unimportant, it doesn’t really matter if they stay in Iraq. It’s basically our burden there now. Which is why none of our presidential candidates have any intention of pulling out of Iraq, with the possible exception of Kucinich, who couldn’t win if it was just him and his wife voting. And I don’t think that even he would be crazy enough to pull out now. None of our real candidates will pull out of Iraq, none of them will cease the war on terror… what Spain does just isn’t as important as what we do, but I do think we need all of the cooperation we can get on the war on terror, and I’m sure they’ll stick around for that, especially considering their recent tragedy. Final note, synchronicty and causality are not synonomous.
Lisa to Homer: I have this rock that keeps tigers away.
Homer to Lisa: how does it work?
Lisa: It doesn’t work, its just a stupid rock, but I don’t see any tigers around do you?
Homer: Lisa, I’d like to buy your rock.
-Matt
PS After getting wait listed by Washington and Lee(not interested in waiting), I had to choose between Wash. U in St. Louis and IUB. Chose IUB even though Wash is ranked a bit higher (25 to 38) based on price (32K to 24K) and wash’s lack of dorms (lving in an apt in downtown St. Louis doesn’t seem that appealing – especially when considering price and summer internships combined with 12 month leases). So Bloomington here I come… which is funny cuz Find you Spot put that on my listy as well. Maybe I’ll see ya there. G’luck on the rest of your apps.
Actually, polls from prior to the elections showed the Populist Party with a healthy margin of victory amongst likely voters. Furthermore, exit polls showed that the bombings WERE an impact to swing voters.
There are two options — either a) the average voter allowed themselves to be swayed or b) in the wake of the bombings non-voters became voters. Both are bad, but neither matter. Why?
It doesn’t matter if the bombings did, in fact, have an impact on the election. The only thing that matters is that it APPEARS that they did to the terrorists.
The minute these folks realize/think they can influence elections with bombs, we’re in twice as much trouble as we are now.
I’m not worried about an October attack on US Soil swinging the election to John Kerry, though that would be bad, I’m worried about an attack on US Soil, period.
PS: Colin Powel has been a tremendous disappointment to me this year in a lot of areas. Not entirely, but I really don’t like his stances on Israel/Palestine, and at times he seems a bit TOO diplomatic. Of course, at this point it doesnt’ do any good for US Officials to bad-mouth the Spanish Government, even if they hate them. Also note-worthy is that Spain decided to pull out on June 30th… the date control is supposed to shift to Iraqi government anyway.
I agree that the potential for this to make terrorist ‘think’ they can influence elections is definitely troubling.
However, I think that based on their general mindset that they are bent on attacking us to 100% of their capability. It’s not really a matter of motive, but a matter of capability. So, while their ‘belief’ may affect their timing, I don’t think it can affect their amount.
The only way to decrease the amount is to heighten our ability to counter attacks before they happen, decrease their infrastrucure by targetting their funds, root out (kill/arrest/detain/whatever) current terrorists, and to take preventative action to prevent others from filling their ranks (this is an image/pr thing).
That said, I think that ‘they’ would attack us with all of their might even if they thought their efforts would produce nothing. The reason that it’s troubling is that the ‘influence’ may make non-terrorists see terrorism as a viable means to an end and thereby deter from ‘preventing’ refilling of the ranks. Basically, it hurts our anti-terrorist PR movement.
And this may have more to do with Mr. Powell’s statements than anything else. I think it’s important to deny the attacks having any impact on elections. You don’t want to give your enemy any bargaining chips in a situation like this. You must make his greatest efforts seem weak and innefectual to create an image of impotance.
As for actual repurcussions in Spain. I mentioned a poll about Spain’s involvement in the war, something Spain’s citizenry are genuinely upset about. You mentioned the possibility that “non-voters became voters”. I agree that this is probably what happened. I dont recall the exact number, but on a news report last night I heard the percentage of population voting in the election and it struck me as quite high. I honestly don’t see why you consider this to be a bad thing, though. I think that the more people involved in the electoral process the better, and I can’t really imagine how anything else could be the case. I don’t think the bombings were necessarily the cause for the increase in voter turnout ( I don’t deny it being possible ). If, however, the poll stating that almost 90% of the populace was against the war was accurate, it could very well be the reason for an increase in voter turnout. Most likely, as with many issues, more than one factor contributed to the result.
Regarding the exit poll as to whether the bombings affected their vote. I honestly haven’t seent that ( though I don’t doubt your claim , so it’s hard for em to comment on. I’d be interested in seeing the wording and results of the poll. Impact on swing voters… what kind of impact ( change in pary allegiance, decision of whether to vote, change in stance on Basque issue, etc.) and what percentage were ’swing’ voters?
I, like most anyone else, am concerned about an attack on US soil; but I don’t think these events will affect the likelihood of one occuring. At least not in the short term. And in the long term I think in order to prevent this type of thing from serving as a ‘recruiter’ film, we need to deny its effectuality on politics. I’m not talking about sticking our collective heads in the sand, but rather sticking up our collective middle finger.
Spain will continue, probably even increase, its fight against terrorism, as will we. But I think the people of that country decided they wanted to get out of Iraq a while ago. And I don’t see the benefit in connecting the two issues.
As for US officials not bad-mouthing other governments, come on – a congessional act renaming french fries, need I say more. I really think I should get a tax refund on the time they spent discussing that issue.
-matt
PS- I’m not trying to be combative and disagree with everything you post – I just get REALLY bored at work and like playing Devil’s advocte. Plus I like debating with someone who has very different ideas than mine and can defend them reasonably and competantly – plus your site rocks.
Interesting points, for sure. Although it seems near impossible that we would be able to engineer an appearance that the elections weren’t affected by the bombings unless that was not only factual, but obvious. It may or may not be factual, but it’s certainly not obvious.
I’ll cede your points about the timing/capability vs. quantity of attacks on the US. Although those comments made me realize that the actual fear is that most of Europe would probably behave in like fashion.
I also saw that the voter turn-out seemed high… 78%… I don’t know if that actually IS high for Spain, but I’d guess that it is. The problem is that nothing ahead of the bombings indicated that the turnout WOULD be high.
This, however, is a perfect illustration of why voter turnout isn’t always a good thing. I’ve always said that I’d rather have 10% of the population informed and voting than 100% of the population voting “just because.” If the Spanish weren’t informed on the issues, and just wanted to go vote (for whatever reason) that’s just as bad. People are stupid, and stupid people should be encouraged to stay home on election day.
As for Spain increasing its fight against terrorism… time will tell. Socialist parties are not well known for that, however.
PS: No worries.. that’s what the comment box is for, though you really should just get a blog.